Find the assumption that could kill it.
Every idea rests on beliefs about desirability, viability, feasibility and usability. Map them, then test the scariest one.
↑ How Important Is It? · → How Much Evidence Do We Have?
Test First
Important · little evidence
Your riskiest bets. Design an experiment this week.
Monitor
Important · strong evidence
Build on these, but keep an eye out for change.
Park
Less important · little evidence
Not worth testing yet. Revisit later.
Ignore
Less important · strong evidence
Don't spend time here.
Source: Strategyzer ↗
Test the scary one first.