Agile & Delivery playbook/Module 5 · Estimation & forecasting
Day 46 / 100 · Estimation & forecasting · Probabilistic forecasting
A range, not a promise.
A single date hides the risk. A forecast with a confidence level shows it, and lets the people asking choose how much risk to take.
1 October
50%
A coin flip. Half the time you'll be late.
USE FOR
Never promise this one.
24 October
85%
A good bet. Late about one time in seven.
USE FOR
Most commitments.
7 November
95%
Very safe. Late about one time in twenty.
USE FOR
Hard deadlines.
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