Agile & Delivery playbook/Module 5 · Estimation & forecasting
Day 47 / 100 · Estimation & forecasting · Monte Carlo basics
Let your history forecast.
A Monte Carlo simulation replays your team's real past weeks thousands of times to show how long the remaining work is likely to take.
01
Gather history
Items finished per week, over the last 10 to 20 weeks.
02
Count what's left
Remaining items, plus a factor for items that will split.
03
Simulate
Randomly replay past weeks thousands of times.
04
Read percentiles
“85% of simulations finished within 11 weeks.”
Read this day in the full version